Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Propositions and Measures: statewide as of 9:56 pm

Ballot Measures

Total precincts 24,845

Reporting Precincts 4,753

Name Yes Votes No Votes %Yes %No

20 Redistricting of Congressional Districts 1,612,439 854,533 65.4% 34.6%

21 State Park Funding. Vehicle License Surcharge. 1,003,986 1,563,178 39.1% 60.9%

22 Prohibit State From Taking Some Local Funds 1,597,393 887,110 64.3% 35.7%

23 Suspend Air Pollution Control Law (AB 32) 1,077,437 1,463,405 42.4% 57.6%

24 Repeal Allowance of Lower Business Tax Liability 968,110 1,510,725 39.0% 61.0%

25 Simple Majority Vote to Pass Budget 1,343,488 1,177,619 53.3% 46.7%

26 2/3 Vote for Some State/Local Fees 1,384,888 1,086,849 56.1% 43.9%

27 Eliminate State Redistricting Commission 947,840 1,485,964 38.9% 61.1%

19 Legalize Marijuana in CA, Regulate and Tax 1,129,899 1,466,223 43.5% 56.5%

Propositions and Measures

Preliminary county results on the propositions are shown below. So far RiversideCounty opposes legalization of marijuana, the vehicle license tax to fund state parks, the majority requirement to pass a state budget and abolishing the state commission for redistricting.

We support the citizens commission to redraw congressional district lines.

And in an interesting demostration of voter confusion, both Measures L and M are winning, although M is ahead by a much larger margin.

See below:
19 - Legalizes Marijuana - CA not Federal
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 79,966 40.98%
NO 115,182 59.02%
Total 195,148 100.00%


20 - Redist. Congressional Dist. - Const.Amend
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 125,701 66.81%
NO 62,444 33.19%
Total 188,145 100.00%


21 - Vehicle License Surcharge - Parks
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 60,432 31.22%
NO 133,166 68.78%
Total 193,598 100.00%


22 - Prohibits State Borrowing - Const. Amend.
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 133,573 70.34%
NO 56,330 29.66%
Total 189,903 100.00%


23 - Suspend Air Pollution Law - AB 32
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 96,457 50.47%
NO 94,659 49.53%
Total 191,116 100.00%


24 - Repeals Lower Business Tax
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 66,488 35.32%
NO 121,775 64.68%
Total 188,263 100.00%


25 - Budget - Simple Majority - Const. Amend.
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 91,047 47.81%
NO 99,393 52.19%
Total 190,440 100.00%


26 - Fees, Two-Thirds Vote - Const. Amend.
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 122,768 65.00%
NO 66,093 35.00%
Total 188,861 100.00%


27 - Elim Redistricting Comm - Const. Amend.
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 76,022 41.26%
NO 108,216 58.74%
Total 184,238 100.00%


K - RCTC Transportation Projects
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 113,663 62.72%
NO 67,550 37.28%
Total 181,213 100.00%


L - Voter Approval - Pub. Safety Retirement
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 92,333 50.99%
NO 88,737 49.01%
Total 181,070 100.00%


M - Voter Approval - Pub. Safety Retirement
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
YES 112,665 63.23%
NO 65,522 36.77%
Total 178,187 100.00%

Governor Senator, statewide races

In the statewide races, Riverside County is giving initial support to the Republican candidates. Whitman for governor, Fiorina for Senator and Cooley for Attorney General all have outpolled the Democratic candidate at this point.

Statewide I believe there is a difference.

Governor
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
GRN - LAURA WELLS 2,284 1.16%
REP - MEG WHITMAN 105,280 53.69%
LIB - DALE F. OGDEN 4,102 2.09%
DEM - JERRY BROWN 77,876 39.71%
AIP - CHELENE NIGHTINGALE 4,855 2.48%
PF - CARLOS ALVAREZ 1,695 0.86%
Total 196,092 100.00%


Lieutenant Governor
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
GRN - JAMES ''JIMI'' CASTILLO 2,180 1.13%
PF - C.T. WEBER 2,322 1.21%
AIP - JIM KING 6,422 3.34%
LIB - PAMELA J. BROWN 13,452 6.99%
DEM - GAVIN NEWSOM 73,872 38.40%
REP - ABEL MALDONADO 94,149 48.93%
Total 192,397 100.00%


Secretary of State
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
LIB - CHRISTINA TOBIN 3,709 1.93%
PF - MARYLOU CABRAL 2,443 1.27%
DEM - DEBRA BOWEN 78,839 41.06%
AIP - MERTON D. SHORT 4,288 2.23%
GRN - ANN MENASCHE 3,814 1.99%
REP - DAMON DUNN 98,929 51.52%
Total 192,022 100.00%


Controller
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
DEM - JOHN CHIANG 79,781 41.52%
AIP - LAWRENCE G. BELIZ 4,292 2.23%
GRN - ROSS D. FRANKEL 2,492 1.30%
LIB - ANDREW ''ANDY'' FAVOR 6,600 3.44%
REP - TONY STRICKLAND 95,544 49.73%
PF - KAREN MARTINEZ 3,430 1.79%
Total 192,139 100.00%


Treasurer
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
PF - DEBRA L. REIGER 2,005 1.04%
LIB - EDWARD M. TEYSSIER 3,889 2.02%
GRN - CHARLES ''KIT'' CRITTENDEN 2,912 1.51%
REP - MIMI WALTERS 92,129 47.85%
DEM - BILL LOCKYER 88,175 45.79%
AIP - ROBERT LAUTEN 3,435 1.78%
Total 192,545 100.00%


Attorney General
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
AIP - DIANE BEALL TEMPLIN 4,838 2.52%
REP - STEVE COOLEY 109,852 57.21%
PF - ROBERT J. EVANS 2,761 1.44%
GRN - PETER ALLEN 3,378 1.76%
DEM - KAMALA D. HARRIS 66,663 34.72%
LIB - TIMOTHY J. HANNAN 4,512 2.35%
Total 192,004 100.00%


Insurance Commissioner
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
LIB - RICHARD S. BRONSTEIN 8,555 4.51%
GRN - WILLIAM BALDERSTON 3,071 1.62%
DEM - DAVE JONES 75,022 39.55%
REP - MIKE VILLINES 91,316 48.14%
AIP - CLAY PEDERSEN 6,592 3.47%
PF - DINA JOSEPHINE PADILLA 5,143 2.71%
Total 189,699 100.00%



























United States Senator
0/1492 0.00%
Vote Count Percent
GRN - DUANE ROBERTS 2,342 1.20%
DEM - BARBARA BOXER 73,268 37.45%
LIB - GAIL K. LIGHTFOOT 3,540 1.81%
PF - MARSHA FEINLAND 2,909 1.49%
REP - CARLY FIORINA 109,926 56.19%
AIP - EDWARD C. NOONAN 3,636 1.86%
Total 195,621 100.00%

First returns 2010

Okay, the first returns are posted. In the local races, Congresswoman Mary bono Mack leads challenger Palm Springs Mayor Steve Pougnet,


Vote Count Percent
REP - MARY BONO MACK 49,583 53.32%
AIP - BILL LUSSENHEIDE 6,340 6.82%
DEM - STEVE POUGNET 37,066 39.86%
Total 92,989 100.00%

In 2008, more than 266,000 votes were cast for this office and in 2006, the total was about 166,000.

In the Hemet School Board race, incumbent Joe Wojcik is leading, but Anza incumbent Phyllis Petri is trailing her challenger, Paul Bakkom


Vote Count Percent
PAUL BAKKOM 9,859 66.43%
PHYLLIS L. PETRI 4,983 33.57%
Total 14,842 100.00%

Idyllwild vote estimate

Well about 660 people cast ballots at the Town Hall precinct today. And about 75 more brought their ballots into the poll. So revised estimates of turnout are now down to 1,000 or less. We'll see.

Hope you voted.

Actual County returns are held up until the final voter leaves the Registrars' office. Preliminary results should be posted soon.

voter enthusiasm

Through Friday, nearly 47.4 percent of registered Riverside county voters requested a ballot through the mail. And as of Friday evening, still four days before the election, nearly 42.4 percent of those had already returned their ballots.

But Republicans were more assiduously returning their ballots early. Of the total ballot requests, Democrats had requested about 35 percent of the issued ballots and Republicans represented nearly 45.5 percent of the requested ballots.

As of Friday, 42 percent of the Democrats had already returned their ballot which represent 35.5 percent of all returned ballots. But Republicans had requested 45.6 percent of the ballots and already 48.8 percent had returned their votes.

Keep in mind that mail ballots voters represented 58.5 percent of all ballots cast in the June primary. For the 2008 election, vote by mail was only 41.5 percent of ballots cast.

voter turnout estimates

Voter turnout won’t be know for another few hours. But The Field Poll’s latest pre-election poll suggest the total Californai turnout will be about 9.5 milllion voters.

If this many people actually cast a ballot, that represents 55 percent of the registered voters. That would be the third lowest turnout this decade as well as the last four decades.

Turnout in the 2005 state special election (recall of former Gov. Grey Davis) was the lowest when only 50.1 percent of registered voters cast a ballot. The next lowest occurred in the 2002 off-year election. Again barely 50 percent of registered voters came to the polls.

So what does this imply for Idyllwild?

At 1:30 nearly 350 voters had come into Town Hall to cast a ballot. This does not include those who merely dropped off their mail ballot. For the June primary, 1,634 people were registered voters in Idyllwild. They cast about 734 ballots for a turnout of about 44.9 percent. Turnout for all of Riverside County was only 31.0 percent.

In the last non-presidential election, 2006, the county turnout was 51.8; But the Idyllwild precinct saw more 1,200 voters (walk-in and mail) for a 72.1 percent turnout.

Nearly 400,000 county residents requested a mail ballot and through yesterday, nearly half or 196,000 had already cast their ballots. If the Hill is somewhat like the whole county, we should expect that about 400 mail ballots have already been returned. If the walk-in voters at 1:30 were half the total, we can estimate 700 voters plus 400 mail ballots and maybe another 150 turned in today for a total of 1,250 ballots cast.

If the statewide turnout is close to 55 percent, then based on the past two elections, an Idyllwild turnout of approximately 75 percent is reasonable.